Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:52:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x109a…f8ba politics 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%23W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$8
sports 25% −$7
other 19% −$6
crypto 8% −$3
economics 6% −$2
tech 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 67 -0.6% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 188 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses23 / 165
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 189
History coverage156d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $308 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? May 14 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 13 $30 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $25 $0 -2%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $136 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 09 $30 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 09 $31 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 08 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 08 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $39 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $39 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 01 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 21 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $127 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $180 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $184 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 1h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $28 12d
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $30 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $30 20d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $30 21d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 93¢ $35 34d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 93¢ $35 35d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $27 35d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $27 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $34 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $34 35d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $23 35d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $23 36d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $27 36d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $27 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $36 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 36d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 36d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 37d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $31 37d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $31 37d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 37d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 37d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $29 37d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $30 37d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $29 37d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $29 38d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $26 38d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $26 38d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $34 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.47 · official $25.47 (match) · 843 history records