Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
10 0x109e…cc98 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%27W / 46L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$240
14 days+$240
30 days+$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$31
crypto 31% +$300
sports 23% −$22
politics 1% −$9
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 36% +7.0%
≤30d 72 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 36% +7.0%
≤90d 72 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 36% +7.0%
all 73 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 36% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 36% +6.3%
10% -27.9% 34% -3.9%
15% -34.8% 33% -13.2%
20% -41.2% 27% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$12 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses27 / 46
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage130d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $62 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$32 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$18 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $58 +$117 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$84 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$55 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$73 +468%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 23 $30 −$29 -96%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Iraq: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 23 $85 +$82 +97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $35 +$11 +32%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +48%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -81%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 21 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $15 +$1 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$19 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$19 +46%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +54%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $175 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records