Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10a1…7a23 weather 485 markets active 3d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-1%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate76%371W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$41
14 days−$45
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -4.6% -13.7% 69% 60% -12.4%
≤30d 357 -4.8% -13.8% 73% 72% -12.4%
≤90d 485 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 75% -10.0%
all 485 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 75% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 75% -10.0%
10% -20.2% 27% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.5%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses371 / 114
Open positions0
Markets (closed)485 / 485
History coverage47d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 485 Trades
no open positions (74 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $16 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $17 −$4 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $17 −$5 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $18 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$15 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 86¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 86¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 83¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 86¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 89¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 91¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 95¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 95¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? SELL No 85¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? SELL No 91¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 82¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 10¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 25¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL No 63¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL No 61¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 974 history records