Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10a1…578a
sports · 1620 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$26 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$114 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$164
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses831 / 767
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1598 / 1620
History coverage70d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 32 History 1598 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$190
14 days−$16
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 45¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+122%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 72¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+79%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 55¢ 88¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 55¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Shevchenko vs. Daniel: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $3 −$2 -78%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Shcherbinina vs. Vagramov: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $3 +$2 +65%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $8 +$1 +16%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Nice: Alina Granwehr vs Jenny Lim Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bublik vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Honda vs. Magadan: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 +$3 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Shevchenko vs. Sachko: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +112%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $3 +$3 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $3 +$3 +83%
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +89%
Zantedeschi vs. Mazzola: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Prisacariu vs. Gennaro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +82%
Dart vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Dart vs. Rakhimova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Gea vs. Lajal: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +86%
Gea vs. Lajal: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Brunclik vs. Sachko: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +86%
Brunclik vs. Sachko: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
ITF Merzig: Tamila Gadamauri vs Luisa Meyer Auf Der Heide Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% −$84
other 7% −$28
crypto 1% +$4
politics 0% +$7
tech 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 47m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $5 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $3 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $3 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 55¢ $3 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $3 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $3 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $3 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 34¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 7h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 48¢ $2 7h
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 49¢ $2 9h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $2 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 15h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 83¢ $5 15h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 90¢ $2 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 91¢ $4 16h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 24¢ $1 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 17h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 13¢ $1 17h
Shevchenko vs. Daniel: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -27.2% -34.1% 40% 40% -32.2%
≤30d 816 -0.7% -10.2% 53% 52% -7.1%
≤90d 1598 -1.2% -10.6% 52% 51% -10.6%
all 1598 -1.2% -10.6% 52% 51% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 51% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 49% -19.2%
15% -26.9% 47% -27.0%
20% -34.1% 40% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.55 · official $163.75 (match) · 3500 history records