Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
10 0x10a1…6c01 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$90 (+25%) realized +$91 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$90
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$76
crypto 14% +$3
sports 10% +$12
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +23.8% +12.0% 56% 56% +39.1%
≤30d 9 +23.8% +12.0% 56% 56% +39.1%
≤90d 17 +14.8% +3.8% 47% 47% +26.1%
all 20 +13.8% +3.0% 50% 50% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 50% +25.8%
10% -6.9% 50% +13.8%
15% -15.9% 45% +2.8%
20% -24.1% 40% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage149d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $91 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 +$39 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$4 -18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$43 +208%
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, May 10 $10 −$8 -84%
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, May 10 $3 +$7 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 08 $5 +$8 +158%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? May 05 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 05 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 05 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026? Jan 31 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 26 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 26 $16 +$8 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 32m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $92 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 28h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 28h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $7 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $9 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $35 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $63 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 7d
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, SELL Yes 11¢ $2 43d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, SELL Yes 46¢ $10 43d
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 66¢ $10 45d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 14¢ $3 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 48d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 48d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes $1 48d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $4 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down $5 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.12 · official $120.12 (match) · 44 history records