Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10a1…c3be sports 598 markets active 1d ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$365 (-5%) realized −$362 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate40%237W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$19
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$334
other 20% −$77
world 12% −$18
crypto 4% +$2
politics 4% −$16
finance 2% −$5
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -5.4% -14.4% 39% 11% -15.6%
≤30d 125 -1.6% -10.9% 60% 11% -10.5%
≤90d 590 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 26% -15.6%
all 590 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 26% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 26% -15.6%
10% -24.2% 20% -23.7%
15% -31.6% 17% -31.0%
20% -38.3% 13% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$362
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses237 / 353
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions8
Markets (closed)590 / 598
History coverage70d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 590 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 89¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 89¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 +$9 +129%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -13%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $12 $0 +3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 13 $5 −$1 -19%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on Jun 13 $5 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -74%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -7%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +10%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $7 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5? Jun 04 $20 −$5 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $6 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 43¢ $7 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $4 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 70¢ $7 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 65¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 81¢ $4 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 3d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $4 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 93¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $5 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 95¢ $5 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 94¢ $5 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 75¢ $4 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 92¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 92¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $4 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $4 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 64¢ $4 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.53 · official $37.32 (match) · 1532 history records