Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10a8…3bbb world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$2
politics 24% $0
other 16% $0
sports 13% $0
economics 7% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 15 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 39 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage307d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $32 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $22 −$2 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $15 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August? Aug 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August? Aug 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 16 $48 $0 -1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 15 $3 $0 -4%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 15 $49 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 14 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 46h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $32 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $36 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $22 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records