Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10a8…f105 world 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$1
politics 22% −$8
other 20% $0
sports 11% $0
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 24 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 68 +29.0% +16.7% 41% 3% -9.6%
all 72 +23.7% +11.9% 40% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 3% -9.8%
10% +1.2% 1% -18.5%
15% -8.6% 1% -26.4%
20% -17.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage526d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $46 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $51 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $138 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $81 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $75 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $35 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $69 +$8 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $104 −$5 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $3 $0 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $12 −$1 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $33 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $51 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $29 +$2 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $88 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $7 $0 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $92 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $35 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $41 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $46 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.25 · official $45.50 (match) · 336 history records