Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10a9…c8a4 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$36
politics 27% −$22
sports 13% −$14
crypto 6% −$3
economics 6% −$7
tech 3% +$4
world 3% +$2
culture 2% −$3
finance 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 64 -0.8% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 118 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 138 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 121
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage101d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $57 −$3 -4%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $49 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $36 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $163 −$2 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $66 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $282 −$5 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $62 −$2 -3%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $60 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $55 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 10 $54 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 09 $57 $0 -1%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $68 −$1 -2%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 06 $53 $0 -1%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 06 $52 −$1 -3%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $54 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $47 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $109 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $64 1h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL No 94¢ $57 2h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 94¢ $57 7h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $9 7h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $9 14h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 15h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 22h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 23h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 30h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $59 31h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 39h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $55 39h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $57 45h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 46h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $42 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 92¢ $67 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $69 3d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $36 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $46 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $66 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.79 · official $63.79 (match) · 518 history records