Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10a9…75b0 weather 87 markets active 2d ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$124 (-12%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%26W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$153
politics 13% +$45
sports 4% −$26
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.2% -35.0% 33% 33% -46.6%
≤30d 61 -36.8% -42.9% 26% 23% -18.9%
≤90d 87 -35.1% -41.3% 30% 26% -22.1%
all 87 -35.1% -41.3% 30% 26% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 26% -22.1%
10% -46.9% 21% -29.5%
15% -52.0% 20% -36.3%
20% -56.7% 16% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses26 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage67d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +121%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $12 +$18 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$12 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $14 +$16 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$5 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 −$3 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $21 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $19 +$20 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $12 −$5 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 +$5 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $12 +$18 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 2? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 2? Jun 03 $13 +$17 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 31? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 30? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 30? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 02 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $14 −$10 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 −$5 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $22 +$19 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 29? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 25? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 29? May 30 $21 +$27 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $13 −$6 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 25? May 25 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 21? May 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 10d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records