Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
10 0x10ac…0e0b sports 551 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$201 (-1%) realized −$189 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate47%245W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Fees−$260est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,682
crypto 17% −$63
other 2% −$8
weather 0% −$44
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -5.7% -14.7% 56% 13% -9.6%
≤30d 251 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 18% -8.1%
≤90d 519 -12.5% -20.9% 47% 28% -17.9%
all 519 -12.5% -20.9% 47% 28% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 28% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 26% -25.8%
15% -35.3% 23% -32.9%
20% -41.7% 19% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses245 / 274
Est. fees paid−$260
Open positions32
Markets (closed)519 / 551
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 519 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $14 $48 +$34 (+246%)
Belgium to win the second half? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $22 $39 +$17 (+74%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 44¢ 100¢ $16 $35 +$19 (+125%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 43¢ 48¢ $29 $33 +$3 (+12%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Over 50¢ 49¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 48¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 30¢ 30¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Under 56¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+77%)
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Carles Cordoba Carles Cordoba 68¢ 67¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 43¢ 16¢ $16 $6 −$10 (-62%)
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel Laia Petretic 57¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 66¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 63¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+58%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 65¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 39¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 +$13 +186%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 +$6 +108%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $14 −$6 -47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $29 +$5 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $14 +$18 +124%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $31 +$14 +46%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $19 +$9 +48%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$5 +129%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $12 +$11 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $7 +$3 +38%
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $5 +$5 +109%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $20 −$19 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $25 +$43 +177%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $13 +$7 +54%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Zheng vs. Sakkari: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$24 +1154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 +$38 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $116 −$115 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $58 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $22 23m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $10 45m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 30¢ $7 45m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $9 46m
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Carles Cordoba BUY Carles Cordoba 68¢ $7 46m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $19 46m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $4 48m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $3 48m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 30¢ $11 51m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $2 59m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 43¢ $2 59m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 41¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 43¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $4 1h
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel BUY Laia Petretic 57¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 48¢ $14 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 47¢ $4 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 66¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $16 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.41 · official $321.05 · 3500 history records