Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x10ad…827c sports 768 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,920 (+7%) realized +$2,535 · open +$385
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%319W / 410L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$449
7 days−$135
14 days−$69
30 days+$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$531
sports 32% +$22
other 30% +$3,002
crypto 3% +$460
tech 2% −$61
politics 0% −$38
finance 0% −$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 33% -11.5%
≤30d 296 -1.6% -10.9% 41% 35% -8.0%
≤90d 729 +4.3% -5.6% 44% 38% -1.0%
all 729 +4.3% -5.6% 44% 38% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 38% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 36% -10.5%
15% -22.9% 35% -19.1%
20% -30.4% 32% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$22 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$2,713
Realized+$2,535
Unrealized+$385
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses319 / 410
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions25
Markets (closed)729 / 768
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 729 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 55¢ 66¢ $477 $571 +$94 (+20%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 69¢ $168 $310 +$142 (+85%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 34¢ 58¢ $163 $283 +$119 (+73%)
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 42¢ 32¢ $372 $276 −$96 (-26%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $198 $229 +$31 (+16%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 42¢ 81¢ $99 $193 +$95 (+96%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 52¢ 90¢ $91 $159 +$68 (+75%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? No 25¢ 16¢ $170 $111 −$59 (-35%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 51¢ $52 $102 +$50 (+96%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $51 $82 +$31 (+61%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $51 $75 +$24 (+47%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? No 15¢ 10¢ $103 $67 −$36 (-35%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 85¢ 87¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 34¢ 36¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $24 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 58¢ $27 $23 −$3 (-13%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 45¢ 44¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 33¢ 22¢ $32 $21 −$11 (-35%)
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 34¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 20¢ $18 $6 −$12 (-66%)
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 17¢ $19 $6 −$14 (-72%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? Jun 27 $103 +$48 +47%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $216 +$184 +85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$41 +164%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $25 +$39 +158%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $24 +$26 +108%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $48 +$21 +42%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $24 +$15 +63%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $26 +$24 +89%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $50 +$54 +106%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $50 −$8 -17%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $26 −$19 -71%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $25 +$37 +144%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $271 +$1 +0%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 25 $35 +$28 +79%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $46 −$46 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $28 +$22 +76%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $26 +$54 +212%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$10 -20%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $203 +$243 +120%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $75 −$50 -67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $51 +$121 +236%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$165 +323%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $31 +$69 +225%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $135 +$72 +53%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$30 +146%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $196 −$190 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $113 +$137 +122%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $72 −$67 -92%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $149 −$149 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 45¢ $22 2m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 27¢ $20 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $44 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 16¢ $3 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 16¢ $13 4h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 37¢ $111 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 64¢ $9 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? SELL No 43¢ $105 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? SELL No 43¢ $2 13h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 42¢ $101 13h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 47¢ $141 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? SELL No 43¢ $45 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 14h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 33¢ $31 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 100¢ $400 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? BUY No 18¢ $4 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 54¢ $23 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 54¢ $9 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 54¢ $5 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 54¢ $17 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 13¢ $1 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 61¢ $98 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 61¢ $0 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 24¢ $48 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? BUY No 30¢ $99 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 29¢ $87 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 17¢ $52 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,713.13 · official $2,732.70 (match) · 3500 history records