Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10ae…c302 other 265 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 254L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$23
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$46
sports 23% −$18
crypto 8% −$8
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 265 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)265 / 265
History coverage140d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 265 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $598 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $310 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $447 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $261 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $170 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $398 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $607 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $334 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $345 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $318 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $609 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $216 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $491 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $206 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $359 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $443 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $138 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $222 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $472 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 5h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 6h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 8h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 10h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 15h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 24h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 26h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 30h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 31h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 33h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 35h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 36h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 38h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 39h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 41h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $58 42h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $58 44h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 45h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 47h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1422 history records