Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
10 0x10b0…8714 crypto 209 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate87%177W / 26L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$65
other 0% −$16
weather 0% −$1
sports 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +3.0% -6.8% 80% 56% -9.4%
≤30d 58 -2.1% -11.5% 76% 31% -9.5%
≤90d 150 -4.7% -13.8% 85% 15% -9.9%
all 203 -0.4% -9.9% 87% 17% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 17% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 10% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 7% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses177 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)203 / 209
History coverage136d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 72¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $500 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $500 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +165%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $500 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $500 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $500 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $1 11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $1 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 37h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $500 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $1 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $1 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $500 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.79 · official $506.79 (match) · 460 history records