Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
10 0x10b2…9ac1 sports 1009 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,235 (-2%) realized +$219 · open −$1,454
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%498W / 501L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$856now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,901
14 days+$4,864
30 days+$4,468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$4,171
crypto 20% −$69
other 7% +$1,923
world 1% −$383
tech 0% −$162
politics 0% −$47
economics 0% −$86
finance 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +41.8% +28.3% 78% 78% +33.4%
≤30d 128 +18.0% +6.8% 59% 54% +17.4%
≤90d 559 -32.1% -38.6% 36% 33% -38.5%
all 999 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 45% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 45% -11.7%
10% -23.8% 40% -20.1%
15% -31.1% 35% -27.8%
20% -37.9% 30% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$59 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$856
Realized+$219
Unrealized−$1,454
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses498 / 501
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions10
Markets (closed)999 / 1009
History coverage192d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 999 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Sweden 86¢ 56¢ $300 $194 −$106 (-35%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ 28¢ $400 $178 −$222 (-56%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 74¢ 44¢ $300 $176 −$124 (-41%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 16¢ $300 $97 −$203 (-68%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 44¢ 8¢ $500 $86 −$414 (-83%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 69¢ 26¢ $100 $37 −$63 (-63%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 27¢ 9¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 39¢ 12¢ $100 $29 −$71 (-71%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $200 $18 −$182 (-91%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 251 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$341 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $406 +$349 +86%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $504 +$200 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $203 +$241 +119%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$69 +34%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$29 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $302 +$61 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$65 +65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $302 +$112 +37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 +$34 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $203 +$163 +80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $112 +$190 +170%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $303 +$126 +42%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $304 +$297 +98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $406 +$354 +87%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $322 +$102 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $506 +$344 +68%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $181 +$62 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $437 +$506 +116%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $127 +$91 +72%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$57 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $215 +$890 +414%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $314 −$310 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $99 +$139 +140%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 +$176 +172%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $96 +$119 +124%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $254 +$287 +113%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$56 +276%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 +$142 +140%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$95 +94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $142 +$111 +78%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $508 +$651 +128%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $215 −$210 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $102 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 69¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 86¢ $301 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $302 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $303 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $304 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $407 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $48 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $100 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $101 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $202 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $201 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $202 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $102 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $101 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $406 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $855.64 · official $960.03 · 3039 history records