Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10b2…4ceb
politics · 624 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,011 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,130 · open −$484
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,820
Realized+$1,130
Unrealized−$484
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses118 / 279
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions280
Markets (closed)397 / 624
History coverage14d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day226.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 280 History 397 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$385
7 days+$554
14 days+$1,130
30 days+$1,130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 23¢ 84¢ $57 $209 +$152 (+267%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 21¢ 43¢ $100 $207 +$107 (+107%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 19¢ 39¢ $100 $205 +$105 (+105%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 33¢ $177 $204 +$28 (+16%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 23¢ 43¢ $100 $189 +$89 (+89%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $100 $177 +$77 (+77%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 26¢ $107 $167 +$60 (+56%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 42¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $150 $140 −$10 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $150 $135 −$15 (-10%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $150 $135 −$15 (-10%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $134 $131 −$3 (-2%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $125 $129 +$4 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $150 $127 −$23 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 56¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $150 $123 −$27 (-18%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 42¢ 52¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 30¢ 37¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 $0 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $24 −$7 -30%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 12 $6 −$1 -21%
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -13%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +147%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $103 +$2 +2%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +47%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $36 +$28 +76%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -22%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $13 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +143%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $121 −$96 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$16 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $0 $0 -22%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $28 +$12 +42%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 12 $9 −$1 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $35 +$126 +355%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $194 +$59 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$329 +9428%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 11 $11 −$1 -10%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $11 −$1 -10%
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat Jun 11 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $29 −$27 -93%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 28% −$27
politics 24% +$717
other 21% −$416
sports 16% −$259
tech 5% +$26
finance 2% −$42
crypto 2% +$349
economics 2% −$13
weather 1% +$337
culture 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $2 0m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $3 5m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $5 5m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $6 6m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 8m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 10m
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10m
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Raul Brancaccio 37¢ $1 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 13m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 41¢ $1 16m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 23m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 22¢ $2 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 41m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 23¢ $6 42m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 50¢ $4 46m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 46m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 47m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 50m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $7 51m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 53m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 53m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 53m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 22¢ $4 55m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 56m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 56m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 57m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 21¢ $2 57m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 22¢ $1 58m
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL No 33¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 +6.0% -4.1% 30% 28% -4.3%
≤30d 397 +4.9% -5.1% 30% 27% +0.4%
≤90d 397 +4.9% -5.1% 30% 27% +0.4%
all 397 +4.9% -5.1% 30% 27% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover226.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 27% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 26% -9.2%
15% -22.5% 24% -18.0%
20% -30.1% 22% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,819.84 · official $7,818.02 (match) · 3500 history records