Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
10 0x10b5…cf60 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$137 (-55%) realized −$132 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$113
crypto 12% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$23 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage138d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $56 $55 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $55 −$53 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
João Félix: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $58 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $55 23h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $36 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
João Félix: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $10 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.