Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10b6…850e sports 37 markets active 3h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,052 (-5%) realized −$1,055 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate74%26W / 9L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$519per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$186
economics 27% +$176
world 12% −$1,403
crypto 12% +$47
politics 12% +$148
sports 9% −$102
finance 1% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +39.6% +26.3% 100% 100% +26.3%
≤30d 4 +13.6% +2.8% 75% 75% +15.2%
≤90d 17 -12.1% -20.4% 65% 41% -16.0%
all 35 -9.7% -18.3% 74% 23% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 23% -14.5%
10% -26.1% 20% -22.7%
15% -33.2% 20% -30.2%
20% -39.8% 9% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,132) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$238 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$1,055
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage236d
Avg bet$519
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 72¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $69 +$27 +40%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 08 $52 −$51 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $81 +$40 +50%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $103 +$67 +65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $110 −$109 -99%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $22 +$1 +5%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $86 +$55 +65%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $116 +$74 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $115 +$53 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 25 $90 −$89 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 21 $123 −$121 -99%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 21 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $12 +$1 +10%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $152 +$69 +46%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $112 −$111 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 05 $105 −$103 -98%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $865 +$32 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $807 +$100 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 07 $746 +$65 +9%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $1,506 −$1,506 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $1,470 +$36 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $1,495 −$25 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $1,426 +$69 +5%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 15 $1,403 +$23 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 07 $1,195 +$52 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $1,243 +$108 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Dec 05 $1,207 +$36 +3%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 20 $1,132 +$75 +7%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 09 $1,059 +$72 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 03 $1,049 +$11 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Nov 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 31 $30 +$1 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $39 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $958 +$22 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $86 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $69 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $52 14d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $81 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $103 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $110 35d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $86 42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 61¢ $116 47d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 68¢ $115 52d
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main BUY Montel Jackson 62¢ $90 58d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 64¢ $123 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar SELL Daniel Merida Aguilar 55¢ $63 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 54¢ $6 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 54¢ $3 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 54¢ $1 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 54¢ $49 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 54¢ $1 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 54¢ $3 62d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $152 65d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $112 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY Yes 51¢ $105 78d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $865 97d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $22 98d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 91¢ $12 98d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $10 98d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 89¢ $807 107d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 92¢ $746 111d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 96¢ $1,506 119d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,470 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,470 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.18 · official $99.18 (match) · 74 history records