Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x10b8…4df0 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$402 (+6%) realized +$474 · open −$72
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$598
7 days+$507
14 days+$471
30 days+$471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$51
sports 20% +$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +18.0% +6.7% 42% 37% +2.5%
≤30d 21 +6.7% -3.4% 38% 33% +1.7%
≤90d 21 +6.7% -3.4% 38% 33% +1.7%
all 21 +6.7% -3.4% 38% 33% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 33% +1.7%
10% -12.7% 33% -8.1%
15% -21.1% 19% -16.9%
20% -28.8% 19% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$45 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,351
Realized+$474
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage10d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $1,423 $1,351 −$72 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,154 +$339 +29%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $35 −$33 -94%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $89 −$54 -60%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $106 +$126 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,332 +$4 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,000 +$331 +33%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $97 −$91 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $106 −$100 -95%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$85 +799%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $117 −$73 -63%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$24 -46%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $53 +$99 +186%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 +$61 +145%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $32 +$11 +33%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,493 37m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,493 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,154 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $1,154 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,294 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $35 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 29¢ $36 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $89 20h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $11 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $232 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $106 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,336 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,332 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,332 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,000 30h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $97 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $106 45h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $11 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $34 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $74 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $32 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 43¢ $29 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $52 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $152 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $53 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $53 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $104 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,350.82 · official $1,350.82 (match) · 38 history records