Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
10 0x10b9…0e4e crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$6 (+3%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$89
other 25% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +35.5%
≤30d 9 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +35.5%
≤90d 9 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +35.5%
all 9 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.8% 67% +35.5%
10% +9.2% 67% +22.6%
15% -1.3% 67% +10.7%
20% -11.0% 56% -0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$3 · ×5.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.02 per $1 lost it wins $11.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$46 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$13 +39%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -13%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 13 $14 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records