Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x10bb…4091 crypto 203 markets active 19h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$342 (+1%) realized +$343 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate64%129W / 72L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$605
14 days+$124
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$32
sports 6% +$585
economics 3% −$921
other 2% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +12.9% +2.2% 66% 61% -1.4%
≤30d 197 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 56% -9.1%
≤90d 197 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 56% -9.1%
all 201 +8.3% -2.0% 64% 56% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 56% -10.3%
10% -11.4% 46% -18.9%
15% -19.9% 32% -26.7%
20% -27.8% 21% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$63 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$343
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses129 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)201 / 203
History coverage584d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 +$25 +99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +49%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$87 +86%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 +$38 +74%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $83 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $56 −$47 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$45 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $127 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $154 −$65 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $155 +$34 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $165 −$22 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $430 −$79 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $113 −$36 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $306 −$36 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $216 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$13 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $205 −$41 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$28 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 38h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 42h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $38 45h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 45h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $25 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 4d
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 4d
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.76 · official $148.77 (match) · 687 history records