Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10bc…0b14 crypto 1345 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$422 (-1%) realized −$263 · open −$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%902W / 748L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day79.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,570
7 days−$1,277
14 days−$1,670
30 days−$1,460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$231
crypto 29% +$643
other 3% +$19
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 430 -82.5% -84.2% 15% 3% -17.0%
≤30d 915 -36.6% -42.6% 48% 22% -13.3%
≤90d 1650 -20.2% -27.8% 55% 35% -11.7%
all 1650 -20.2% -27.8% 55% 35% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 35% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 29% -20.2%
15% -41.0% 25% -27.9%
20% -46.8% 22% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$673
Realized−$263
Unrealized−$159
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses902 / 748
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1650 / 1345
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day79.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 99¢ 92¢ $721 $673 −$47 (-7%)
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Maya Joint 95¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 99¢ $424 1m
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 99¢ $198 1m
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 99¢ $99 1m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 100¢ $692 3m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 93¢ $371 47m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 87¢ $99 53m
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Zhizhen Zhang 99¢ $99 54m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 90¢ $162 55m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Maya Joint 5¢ $9 55m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 95¢ $285 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 85¢ $85 2h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 95¢ $92 3h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 95¢ $136 3h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 95¢ $57 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 96¢ $161 3h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 99¢ $45 3h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 98¢ $49 4h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 96¢ $48 4h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 94¢ $188 4h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 99¢ $208 5h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 100¢ $200 5h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 98¢ $274 5h
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Jones/P BUY Frantzen/Haase 99¢ $3 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $225 24h
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Jones/P BUY Frantzen/Haase 98¢ $49 24h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Martin Landaluce 99¢ $198 25h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 94¢ $188 25h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 96¢ $156 27h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 99¢ $284 27h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 99¢ $13 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $673.46 · official $673.46 (match) · 3500 history records