Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:52:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10bc…6d0a
weather · 131 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$124 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$137 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses58 / 67
Open positions6
Markets (closed)125 / 131
History coverage39d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 6 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 31? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 31? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? May 31 $1 $0 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 23? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 23? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 23? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 23? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 24? May 25 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 24? May 25 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 24? May 24 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 23? May 23 $1 +$1 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 17? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on May 17? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 18? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 22? May 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 18? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 18? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23? May 23 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23? May 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 23 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 22? May 22 $1 +$1 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$137
other 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 21d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 24? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 21d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 24? SELL No 0¢ $0 21d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 24? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 21d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 24? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 21d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 24? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 24? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 22d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 23? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 24? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 24? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 91 -28.5% -35.4% 45% 38% -42.9%
≤90d 125 -25.3% -32.4% 46% 40% -30.8%
all 125 -25.3% -32.4% 46% 40% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 40% -30.8%
10% -38.9% 34% -37.5%
15% -44.8% 19% -43.5%
20% -50.2% 13% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.96 · official $5.97 (match) · 271 history records