Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10c0…24e5 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$198 · open −$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 58% -10.2%
≤30d 26 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 58% -10.2%
≤90d 26 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 58% -10.2%
all 26 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 58% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 58% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 50% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 42% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 42% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$37 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$198
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $191 $2 −$189 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $166 +$23 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $93 +$55 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $194 −$64 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $170 +$114 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $125 −$60 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $86 +$76 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$30 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $84 −$50 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$15 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$6 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$5 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $31 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $146 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $32 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $148 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $32 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $32 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $170 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $34 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.37 · official $26.05 · 128 history records