Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10c2…6406
other · 28 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$7 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)23 / 28
History coverage134d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 5 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Yes 76¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? No 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-28? Yes 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-07? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-28? No 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Dplus KIA 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs JD Gaming 40¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 52¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? Yes 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage KT Rolster 35¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-21? No 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-02-21? Yes 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Anyones Legend 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-28? Yes 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $1 +$1 +74%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Mar 01 $1 +$3 +317%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $2 −$1 -50%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 24 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 24 $1 +$2 +186%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-02-15? Feb 16 $1 +$2 +163%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $5 +$12 +244%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 03 $5 +$6 +116%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 31 $5 +$2 +37%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% +$10
other 28% −$2
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $1 8h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 51¢ $1 10h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $1 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 25h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 56¢ $1 36h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 2d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 88d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-03-07? SELL No 87¢ $2 96d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-03-07? BUY No 50¢ $1 96d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 32¢ $1 99d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 40¢ $1 100d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-28? BUY No 31¢ $1 103d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 103d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 103d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 104d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA 28¢ $1 104d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs SELL BNK FEARX 69¢ $1 104d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY BNK FEARX 48¢ $1 104d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 100¢ $4 108d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 45¢ $1 108d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 54¢ $1 108d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 110d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-21? BUY No 17¢ $1 110d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 110d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-21? BUY No 36¢ $1 110d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-02-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +57.8% +42.7% 67% 67% +43.6%
≤30d 3 +57.8% +42.7% 67% 67% +43.6%
≤90d 4 +18.3% +7.1% 50% 50% +8.0%
all 23 +9.3% -1.1% 43% 43% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 43% +7.1%
10% -10.6% 43% -3.2%
15% -19.2% 43% -12.5%
20% -27.1% 39% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.97 · official $3.97 (match) · 50 history records