Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
10 0x10c4…9b46 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+11%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$33
sports 38% $0
other 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.8% +5.6% 50% 40% +3.1%
≤30d 10 +16.8% +5.6% 50% 40% +3.1%
≤90d 10 +16.8% +5.6% 50% 40% +3.1%
all 10 +16.8% +5.6% 50% 40% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.6% 40% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -4.5% 30% -6.8%
15% -13.7% 30% -15.8%
20% -22.2% 30% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$17 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$50 +138%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 42¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Under 87¢ $36 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 86¢ $36 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $70.00 · 36 history records