Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10c9…e999 crypto 159 markets active 37d ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1033 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$156,332 (+336%) realized +$156,332 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%79W / 80L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day1033.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$3,084
sports 5% +$585
other 1% +$170
weather 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1033 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 159 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 42% -2.1%
all 159 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 42% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1033.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 42% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 38% -11.5%
15% -23.9% 31% -20.0%
20% -31.3% 23% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$128 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$156,332
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses79 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$293
Trades / day1033.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 21? May 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 28 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 28 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 28 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 28 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 28 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 28 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 28 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 28 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 28 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 28 $291 −$291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 28 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 28 $355 −$355 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $375 −$375 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 28 $429 −$429 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 28 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $332 −$332 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 28 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 28 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6AM ET May 28 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 28 $229 −$229 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 28 $620 −$620 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 28 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 23 $474 +$231 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 23 $381 +$86 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 23 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 23 $245 −$17 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 23 $254 +$211 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 23 $141 +$78 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 23 $251 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 23 $146 +$559 +383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 23 $590 +$145 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $9 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $8 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $9 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $8 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $8 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $7 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $15 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $15 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $12 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $12 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $0 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records