Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10cd…f37b other 137 markets active 2d ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$89 (-12%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%58W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$34
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$114
sports 11% +$5
world 10% −$1
crypto 8% +$1
tech 4% −$3
culture 1% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -46.4% -51.5% 30% 30% -23.4%
≤30d 83 -24.7% -31.9% 40% 36% -25.3%
≤90d 137 -13.9% -22.1% 42% 35% -22.7%
all 137 -13.9% -22.1% 42% 35% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 35% -22.7%
10% -29.6% 31% -30.1%
15% -36.4% 26% -36.9%
20% -42.6% 20% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses58 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage49d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? Jun 14 $19 −$7 -35%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $4 +$3 +86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in July 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $13 +$5 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +34%
Vanuatu vs. Fiji: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $11 +$4 +40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $13 +$7 +53%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? May 28 $2 +$2 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $2 −$1 -70%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 26 $1 +$2 +214%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 25 $1 +$3 +240%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $1 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $1 +$2 +166%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 43h
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes $12 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $7 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $4 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No $2 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 8d
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 8d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes $7 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 9d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No $1 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No $1 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 10d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 84¢ $21 11d
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes $2 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 73¢ $13 11d
Vanuatu vs. Fiji: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 303 history records