Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10ce…fe1f other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$114 (-1%) realized +$105 · open −$219
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$853per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$4,938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$257
sports 10% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.2% -14.2% 0% 0% -14.2%
≤30d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -12.2%
all 4 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -12.2%
10% -19.0% 0% -20.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -28.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$56 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$4,938
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$219
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage32d
Avg bet$853
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,753 $2,311 +$558 (+32%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $928 $843 −$85 (-9%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,221 $686 −$534 (-44%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $448 $440 −$8 (-2%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $255 $252 −$3 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $292 $219 −$73 (-25%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 5¢ $259 $185 −$74 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,637 −$137 -5%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $320 −$18 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $514 +$45 +9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $616 −$12 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $58 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $229 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $151 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $229 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $259 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2,179 19h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $300 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $302 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $560 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $558 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $603 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $604 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 18d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $320 25d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $321 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $121 25d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 25d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 25d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $618 25d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $570 26d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 26d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $350 31d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,230 31d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 31d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $309 31d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,937.78 · official $4,937.78 (match) · 66 history records