Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10d1…1daa
other · 92 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage442d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days+$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $162 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $117 −$4 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $375 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $471 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $225 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $12 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $415 +$4 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $156 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $118 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $156 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $166 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $156 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $155 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $206 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $297 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $250 −$3 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $169 −$3 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $317 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $38 −$2 -6%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $643 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $1,064 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 11 $14 $0 +2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $9 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 30 $6 −$3 -50%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 30 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 30 $6 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $7 $0 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 28 $3 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1? Jul 28 $1 $0 +43%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July? Jul 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 73% −$5
other 23% −$5
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$3
culture 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 23m
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 5h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $154 5h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $162 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $114 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $117 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $10 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $10 47h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $146 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $82 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $70 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $166 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $166 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $19 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $133 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $133 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 26 -0.7% -10.1% 42% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 91 -2.1% -11.4% 37% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 1% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 362 history records