Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
10 0x10d4…69eb sports 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,581 (-36%) realized −$19,904 · open +$323
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%73W / 92L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$887est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6,648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$806
7 days−$587
14 days−$2,155
30 days−$25,075
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$9,833
other 9% +$285
tech 2% +$70
crypto 0% −$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +56.2% +41.3% 46% 42% +34.2%
≤30d 135 -15.8% -23.8% 33% 32% -33.2%
≤90d 165 +4.2% -5.7% 44% 44% -8.4%
all 165 +4.2% -5.7% 44% 44% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 44% -8.4%
10% -14.7% 44% -17.2%
15% -23.0% 43% -25.2%
20% -30.5% 42% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$358 vs −$434 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$6,648
Realized−$19,904
Unrealized+$323
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses73 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$887
Open positions35
Markets (closed)165 / 184
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$295
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 31¢ 58¢ $936 $1,732 +$796 (+85%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 93¢ 80¢ $930 $800 −$130 (-14%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 80¢ $730 $795 +$65 (+9%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 89¢ 74¢ $888 $736 −$152 (-17%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 43¢ 24¢ $932 $504 −$428 (-46%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 36¢ 66¢ $154 $285 +$131 (+85%)
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $248 $246 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 40¢ 40¢ $240 $237 −$3 (-1%)
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 19¢ 18¢ $190 $180 −$10 (-5%)
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 29¢ 81¢ $42 $118 +$76 (+181%)
Anthropic CEO arrested? No 95¢ 99¢ $95 $99 +$4 (+4%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $78 $75 −$3 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 66¢ 66¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Austria leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 42¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 39¢ 38¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $42 $38 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 16 $250 −$500 -200%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Jun 16 $514 −$1,039 -202%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $112 −$224 -200%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Jun 16 $45 −$92 -202%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Jun 16 $594 −$1,194 -201%
Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Jun 16 $168 −$340 -202%
Spread: 76ers (-15.5) Jun 16 $0 −$334 -173798%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $52 +$748 +1426%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $173 +$627 +364%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $413 +$387 +94%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $366 +$434 +119%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $33 −$32 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $1,035 +$843 +81%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 14 $231 −$228 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 13 $438 +$369 +84%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $211 +$197 +93%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $930 +$70 +8%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $16 −$16 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $7 −$6 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $324 +$276 +85%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $400 −$197 -49%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $500 −$206 -41%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $317 −$312 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $311 −$306 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 09 $311 +$301 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $329 +$294 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $311 −$306 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $1,015 +$606 +60%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $244 −$115 -47%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $270 −$152 -56%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 04 $565 −$495 -88%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 04 $525 −$227 -43%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 04 $500 −$380 -76%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $1,015 −$499 -49%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $218 −$210 -96%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $24 +$36 +150%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $275 +$225 +82%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $520 +$480 +92%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 26 $234 −$234 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 May 26 $392 −$392 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 May 26 $635 −$428 -67%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $130 −$130 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $677 +$1,053 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 1m
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2m
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 4m
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 4m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $41 4m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 4m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $41 5m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $63 17m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $41 18m
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 18m
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 19m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 19m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 19m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 33m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $40 34m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 35m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 35m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 46m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 46m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 47m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $44 48m
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 49m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $41 50m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 51m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 51m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 53m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,648.45 · official $6,648.46 (match) · 3500 history records