Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10d5…33fd
weather · 334 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$961 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$394 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$143
Realized−$394
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses195 / 154
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)349 / 334
History coverage20d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day165.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 27 History 349 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$687
7 days−$878
14 days−$405
30 days−$394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $19 $16 −$2 (-13%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-14%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+12%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $11 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+150%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+295%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 29? Jun 14 $6 −$12 -219%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 13? Jun 14 $118 −$97 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 3? Jun 14 $23 −$13 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? Jun 14 $5 −$12 -262%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 28? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 10? Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23? Jun 14 $9 −$27 -286%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 1 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -103%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 13? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 1? Jun 14 $17 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 2 Jun 14 $0 −$5 -6222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 6? Jun 14 $28 −$29 -106%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6? Jun 14 $0 +$33 +9347%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 3? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 11? Jun 14 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 1? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 18? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 18? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13? Jun 14 $0 +$4 +1758%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +174%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 24? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21? Jun 14 $1 +$16 +2355%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 −$23 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $157 +$52 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $243 −$59 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $93 +$11 +11%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 85% +$349
other 9% −$68
crypto 5% −$36
sports 0% −$16
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 4m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $55 38m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 39m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 +26.4% +14.3% 45% 29% -33.8%
≤30d 349 +15.6% +4.5% 56% 31% -12.7%
≤90d 349 +15.6% +4.5% 56% 31% -12.7%
all 349 +15.6% +4.5% 56% 31% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover165.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 31% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -5.5% 25% -21.1%
15% -14.6% 21% -28.7%
20% -23.0% 15% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.78 · official $142.78 (match) · 3500 history records