Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10d7…eb3b world 499 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,222 (-5%) realized −$4,184 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate66%322W / 165L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$12
14 days+$26
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$2,270
crypto 22% −$2,605
other 8% +$1,278
politics 6% −$642
finance 1% −$6
culture 0% +$4
tech 0% −$16
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 43% -3.4%
≤30d 33 +7.4% -2.8% 48% 42% -3.6%
≤90d 223 -14.4% -22.6% 51% 35% -24.1%
all 487 -4.5% -13.6% 66% 30% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 30% -14.4%
10% -21.9% 20% -22.6%
15% -29.4% 15% -30.1%
20% -36.3% 11% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$53 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized−$4,184
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses322 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)487 / 499
History coverage155d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 63¢ 69¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 55¢ 60¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+9%)
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? No 49¢ 72¢ $19 $27 +$9 (+47%)
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $25 $23 −$3 (-10%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 5¢ $28 $5 −$23 (-82%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-89%)
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $18 +$12 +63%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$16 -82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $35 −$17 -49%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $12 −$8 -73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 +$16 +80%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +143%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 05 $5 +$9 +180%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $22 +$18 +80%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 02 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? May 31 $36 −$32 -88%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? May 31 $13 −$6 -47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $30 +$3 +9%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 +$4 +89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 26 $5 −$1 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $35 +$7 +20%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $21 −$12 -60%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $6 −$2 -40%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 22 $20 +$27 +136%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 21 $30 +$18 +61%
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e May 19 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 19 $41 $0 -1%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 18 $15 +$15 +98%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $12 +$16 +129%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $201 −$200 -100%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 16 $26 +$10 +36%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 16 $4 +$3 +84%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 16 $21 −$13 -65%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $13 +$3 +23%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? May 14 $41 −$6 -16%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 31? May 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will King Charles say "Defense" during State Opening? May 13 $7 $0 +5%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14? May 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Will King Charles say "Healthcare" during State Opening? May 13 $5 −$4 -84%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026? May 13 $30 +$10 +32%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $82 −$29 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 30¢ $8 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 20¢ $3 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 19¢ $2 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 75¢ $30 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 24¢ $15 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 29h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 16¢ $10 34h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 36h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $4 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $18 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 45¢ $18 3d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 9¢ $3 4d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 33¢ $1 4d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 33¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 54¢ $14 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 57¢ $15 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 77¢ $36 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 43¢ $20 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 21¢ $3 5d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.80 · official $268.29 · 1971 history records