Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
10 0x10da…98e2 sports 239 markets active 2d ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$210 (-6%) realized −$214 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%127W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$18
14 days+$83
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$212
other 9% +$50
crypto 8% −$65
world 3% +$4
tech 2% +$1
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 50% -4.9%
≤30d 63 +12.1% +1.4% 70% 56% -0.3%
≤90d 153 +1.4% -8.3% 62% 55% -7.9%
all 228 -6.0% -14.9% 56% 50% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 50% -16.0%
10% -23.1% 49% -24.1%
15% -30.5% 45% -31.4%
20% -37.3% 38% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses127 / 101
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions11
Markets (closed)228 / 239
History coverage153d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+16%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 43¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +62%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +67%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $10 +$7 +65%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $10 +$8 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 26 $10 −$9 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$22 +216%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $10 +$21 +206%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 16 $30 +$22 +71%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $9 +$9 +93%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 09 $10 +$9 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 09 $30 +$20 +65%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $40 −$40 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $7 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $10 42h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 54¢ $10 42h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ $10 42h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $10 42h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $10 42h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $10 42h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $10 42h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $10 42h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $10 42h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $10 42h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $10 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $20 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $20 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $20 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 42h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $3 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 32¢ $10 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 81¢ $10 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $10 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 68¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.30 · official $136.30 (match) · 440 history records