Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x10dd…4831 sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,480 (-10%) realized −$3,480 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%97W / 72L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$76
14 days+$161
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,128
crypto 15% −$2,073
politics 1% −$199
other 0% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +111.1% +91.0% 62% 62% +16.0%
≤30d 60 +8.4% -1.9% 45% 45% -6.1%
≤90d 89 +10.5% -0.0% 47% 46% -5.9%
all 169 +3.9% -6.0% 57% 45% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 45% -19.0%
10% -15.0% 36% -26.7%
15% -23.2% 31% -33.8%
20% -30.7% 26% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$109 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$3,480
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses97 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage595d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Brussels: Kai Wehnelt vs Samuele Pieri Kai Wehnelt 42¢ 41¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo Jun 23 $20 +$7 +34%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $121 +$11 +9%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $10 +$12 +118%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $56 +$30 +54%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone Jun 21 $20 +$11 +54%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Keisuke Saitoh vs Hunter Heck Jun 18 $30 +$25 +82%
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Dimitris Sakellaridis Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
ITF Tokyo: Hunter Heck vs Maximus Jones Jun 17 $31 +$45 +148%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Andrin Casanova Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chengyiyi Yuan vs Han Shi Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $20 −$9 -44%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $30 +$22 +71%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $20 +$30 +149%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $30 +$21 +70%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 13 $25 +$4 +16%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $20 +$21 +102%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $10 +$22 +216%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $15 +$34 +223%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Elias Ymer Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 03 $2 −$1 -98%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 03 $12 −$12 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $13 +$10 +76%
Tyler: Yuta Shimizu vs Dane Sweeny Jun 03 $7 +$7 +95%
Tyler: Fajing Sun vs Andre Ilagan Jun 03 $4 +$3 +73%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $4 $0 -5%
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Michael Mmoh May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $11 −$11 -99%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Justin Boulais May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $10 +$10 +99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $25 −$25 -98%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Kayla Day vs Luisina Giovannini May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Kranjska Gora: Tito Chavez vs Calvin Mueller May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo SELL Xiyu Wang 96¢ $27 51m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic SELL Daniel Altmaier 96¢ $110 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 92¢ $80 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 69¢ $19 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic SELL Daniel Altmaier 51¢ $20 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Xinyu Wang 100¢ $22 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $11 7h
ITF Brussels: Kai Wehnelt vs Samuele Pieri BUY Kai Wehnelt 42¢ $5 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo BUY Xiyu Wang 71¢ $20 19h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Xinyu Wang 45¢ $10 23h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang SELL Xinyu Wang 49¢ $86 32h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 58¢ $10 2d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone SELL Alex Molcan 100¢ $31 2d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Alex Molcan 64¢ $10 2d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Alex Molcan 64¢ $10 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 51¢ $10 2d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 66¢ $20 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 22¢ $20 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 42¢ $10 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 41¢ $5 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 40¢ $20 3d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Shuai Zhang 37¢ $10 3d
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Tai Leonard Sach 26¢ $10 4d
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Tai Leonard Sach 27¢ $10 4d
ITF Tokyo: Keisuke Saitoh vs Hunter Heck SELL Hunter Heck 100¢ $55 5d
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Dimitris Sakellaridis BUY Dimitris Sakellaridis 10¢ $10 5d
ITF Tokyo: Keisuke Saitoh vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 54¢ $30 5d
ITF Tokyo: Hunter Heck vs Maximus Jones SELL Hunter Heck 100¢ $76 6d
ITF Tokyo: Hunter Heck vs Maximus Jones BUY Hunter Heck 30¢ $10 6d
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 58¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.70 · official $4.76 (match) · 357 history records