Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10e0…92e4 weather 866 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$111 (-0%) realized −$97 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate70%610W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$287
7 days−$214
14 days−$135
30 days−$921
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$353
crypto 1% −$32
sports 0% $0
other 0% −$14
politics 0% −$34
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -34.1% -40.4% 41% 27% -18.9%
≤30d 151 -24.6% -31.8% 54% 21% -15.5%
≤90d 778 -5.1% -14.1% 70% 29% -10.0%
all 871 -6.2% -15.2% 70% 29% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 29% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 13% -18.7%
15% -30.7% 8% -26.6%
20% -37.5% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$23 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses610 / 261
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)871 / 866
History coverage118d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 871 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $37 $30 −$6 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $30 $26 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 28 Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on May 28? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 28? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 28? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 28? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 28? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 28? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on May 28? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 28? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $16 −$6 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 23 $35 +$7 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $34 −$22 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $211 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 −$12 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? Jun 22 $87 −$31 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $178 +$67 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $41 −$35 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 −$8 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $110 +$30 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $13 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 +$11 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Jun 20 $173 +$74 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $74 −$32 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $44 −$27 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $60 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $208 +$24 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $72 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $59 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $95 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$13 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $121 +$42 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 −$10 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$10 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$7 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 2m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 45¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.97 · official $158.97 (match) · 3093 history records