Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10e1…aa05
crypto · 92 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,009 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$701 · open −$3,021
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$9,943
Realized−$701
Unrealized−$3,021
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses20 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions34
Markets (closed)66 / 92
Avg bet$1,150
Trades / day180.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 34 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$598
7 days−$3,534
14 days−$2,505
30 days−$701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $2,485 $1,953 −$533 (-21%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1,495 $1,650 +$155 (+10%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 44¢ 52¢ $1,348 $1,574 +$226 (+17%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 56¢ 29¢ $3,013 $1,548 −$1,465 (-49%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,316 $1,098 −$218 (-17%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $616 $489 −$127 (-21%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $465 $248 −$217 (-47%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $283 $241 −$41 (-15%)
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? No 51¢ 94¢ $117 $217 +$100 (+86%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 3¢ 1¢ $306 $168 −$138 (-45%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $262 $128 −$134 (-51%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $6 $98 +$93 (+1625%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $263 $94 −$169 (-64%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $75 $70 −$5 (-7%)
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $62 $55 −$6 (-10%)
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat? No 9¢ 10¢ $45 $52 +$8 (+17%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $262 $44 −$218 (-83%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Down 39¢ 10¢ $134 $36 −$98 (-73%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-39%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $110 $31 −$80 (-72%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $14 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 38¢ 4¢ $100 $11 −$89 (-89%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $6,414 +$720 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 10 $2,787 −$14 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $9 +$36 +378%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 08 $3,337 −$2,258 -68%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 31? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 08 $83 −$2 -3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 28? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 28? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $66 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 29? Jun 08 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? Jun 08 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? Jun 08 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 28? Jun 08 $33 −$33 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 08 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? Jun 08 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? Jun 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 08 $167 −$167 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? Jun 08 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? Jun 08 $168 −$168 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 08 $91 −$3 -3%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $423 −$423 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $30,441 −$496 -2%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 23? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 05 $5,582 +$94 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $37 +$35 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $206 +$110 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$79 +1473%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $6,485 −$875 -14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,384 −$647 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$3,927
crypto 40% −$2,770
other 9% −$2,353
politics 3% −$2,302
finance 0% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $35 37m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $48 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $75 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $30 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $36 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -71.5% -74.2% 9% 7% -15.9%
≤30d 66 +13.6% +2.8% 30% 20% -10.3%
≤90d 66 +13.6% +2.8% 30% 20% -10.3%
all 66 +13.6% +2.8% 30% 20% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover180.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 20% -10.3%
10% -7.1% 17% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here -16.0% 15% -26.7%
20% -24.3% 12% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,943.35 · official $9,944.07 (match) · 3500 history records