Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0x10e8…e98f

crypto · 5 markets active 1h ago

0.0score

−$22 -18%

TOTAL PnL · realized −$23 · open +$2

avoidriskycopy

~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Net worth$73

Realized−$23

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Chart Positions 4 History 1 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$23

7 days−$23

14 days−$23

30 days−$23

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	Yes	8¢	9¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+5%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$15	$14	−$1 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	25¢	26¢	$4	$5	+$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 14	$47	−$23	-50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

tech 43% +$3

crypto 40% −$24

sports 13% −$1

other 4% $0

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY No	25¢	$5	50m
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	52m
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Down	5¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Up	82¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$26	1h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$52	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-54.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-50.2%	-54.9%	0%	0%	-54.9%
≤30d	1	-50.2%	-54.9%	0%	0%	-54.9%
≤90d	1	-50.2%	-54.9%	0%	0%	-54.9%
all	1	-50.2%	-54.9%	0%	0%	-54.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.9%	0%	-54.9%
10%	-59.2%	0%	-59.2%
15%	-63.2%	0%	-63.2%
20%	-66.8%	0%	-66.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.19 · official $73.19 (match) · 11 history records