Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10e8…c8c9 world 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-4%) realized −$57 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$0
14 days−$61
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$110
sports 17% +$23
other 13% +$22
finance 8% +$4
politics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$5
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.0% -13.1% 45% 30% -9.5%
≤30d 48 -2.0% -11.3% 42% 27% -10.8%
≤90d 49 -4.0% -13.1% 41% 27% -14.2%
all 49 -4.0% -13.1% 41% 27% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 27% -14.2%
10% -21.4% 22% -22.4%
15% -29.0% 18% -29.9%
20% -36.0% 12% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)49 / 57
History coverage36d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 43¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $20 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $15 −$2 -16%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $30 −$1 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $80 +$7 +8%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $30 +$15 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $20 −$3 -14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $30 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$4 +18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 +$35 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $31 +$58 +188%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? May 30 $30 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $20 +$22 +109%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $40 −$30 -75%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $20 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 27 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $21 −$3 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $20 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? May 27 $20 +$2 +9%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? May 27 $30 −$3 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $21 −$2 -10%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam May 26 $20 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 26 $10 +$14 +143%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 26 $100 +$32 +32%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $19 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 73¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 22h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 86¢ $19 22h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $13 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $20 47h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $36 47h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $30 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $28 4d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 71¢ $18 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.21 · official $135.21 (match) · 133 history records