Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
10 0x10ec…dd3d other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 663d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$43 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$3
14 days+$11
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 24% +$94
politics 20% +$7
sports 19% +$52
tech 13% −$130
crypto 11% −$69
culture 8% −$4
world 5% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.1% -35.0% 50% 50% -16.3%
≤30d 8 -37.9% -43.8% 38% 38% -1.0%
≤90d 23 -24.4% -31.6% 30% 30% -3.5%
all 36 -7.2% -16.1% 39% 36% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 36% -12.1%
10% -24.1% 31% -20.5%
15% -31.4% 31% -28.2%
20% -38.2% 25% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

663d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage663d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 61¢ 76¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +38%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 +$20 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $80 −$3 -4%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Apr 21 $114 −$4 -3%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Apr 21 $19 −$10 -53%
Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 21 $55 −$4 -6%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel? Apr 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Apr 20 $64 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $80 +$44 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $30 +$30 +101%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $15 −$15 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $20 −$10 -49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $15 +$13 +90%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $151 +$25 +17%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? Nov 16 $1 +$1 +89%
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean president Nov 16 $30 −$8 -28%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 21 $180 −$120 -67%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? Oct 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31? Oct 20 $25 −$9 -36%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 20 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 20 $25 +$21 +85%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Oct 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 11 $40 +$78 +194%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-10? Oct 10 $15 +$23 +156%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 30? Aug 30 $151 −$69 -45%
Pavel Durov released in August? Aug 28 $20 +$11 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 26h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 57¢ $10 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 31¢ $7 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $7 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 21d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $77 59d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $80 59d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners SELL Yes 79¢ $111 61d
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $9 61d
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $19 61d
Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? SELL No 51¢ $51 61d
Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? BUY No 55¢ $39 61d
Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? BUY No 55¢ $16 61d
Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 61d
Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 61d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 82¢ $58 61d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 82¢ $56 61d
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? SELL Yes 62¢ $62 61d
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 61d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Vitality 64¢ $80 62d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $30 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.38 · official $43.38 (match) · 84 history records