Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

10 0x10ed…116a crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$22 (+12%) realized +$22 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%8W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day22.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+3.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+14.9%	+3.9%	47%	47%	-5.0%
≤30d	17	+14.9%	+3.9%	47%	47%	-5.0%
≤90d	17	+14.9%	+3.9%	47%	47%	-5.0%
all	17	+14.9%	+3.9%	47%	47%	-5.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover22.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+3.9%	47%	-5.0%
10% ← realistic here	-6.0%	47%	-14.1%
15%	-15.1%	47%	-22.4%
20%	-23.4%	47%	-30.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +37% → late -5% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.1 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$22

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses8 / 9

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day22.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 19	$9	+$10	+112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 19	$10	+$14	+134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 19	$10	+$10	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 19	$10	−$9	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 19	$21	−$20	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 19	$14	+$17	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 19	$20	+$21	+106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 19	$10	−$9	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 19	$10	+$10	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 19	$10	+$10	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 19	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 19	$1	+$4	+398%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$20	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$9	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$10	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	SELL Down	94¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$10	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$10	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$2	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$1	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records