Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
10 0x10f0…9fc0 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$605 (+41%) realized +$605 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$156
other 47% +$475
crypto 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +21.2% +9.7% 65% 60% +27.1%
≤30d 20 +21.2% +9.7% 65% 60% +27.1%
≤90d 20 +21.2% +9.7% 65% 60% +27.1%
all 20 +21.2% +9.7% 65% 60% +27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 60% +27.1%
10% -0.8% 60% +14.9%
15% -10.4% 60% +3.8%
20% -19.2% 45% -6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$29 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.99 per $1 lost it wins $3.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$605
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage5d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 +$55 +108%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 +$3 +6%
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$49 +98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 19 $101 +$53 +52%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$49 +48%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$65 +128%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$27 -27%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $101 +$68 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$196 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $101 −$23 -22%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -60%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $119 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $71 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 41¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 19¢ $55 18h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $105 18h
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $31 18h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 18h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $51 18h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 20h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 21h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 23h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $151 41h
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 42h
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 42h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $74 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 46h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 46h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $398 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records