Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10f4…c2ea weather 227 markets active 4h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%109W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$17
14 days−$57
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$72
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.5% -21.8% 33% 33% -32.3%
≤30d 140 -2.8% -12.1% 43% 41% -16.4%
≤90d 224 +0.2% -9.3% 49% 47% -12.9%
all 224 +0.2% -9.3% 49% 47% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 47% -12.9%
10% -18.0% 46% -21.2%
15% -25.9% 44% -28.8%
20% -33.2% 37% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses109 / 115
Open positions3
Markets (closed)224 / 227
History coverage51d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 19? No 52¢ 71¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? No 57¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19? No 58¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$3 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$3 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 −$5 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $17 −$8 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $14 −$12 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$3 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$3 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 08 $16 +$12 +72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 08 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $12 −$6 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$7 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 −$6 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$4 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $8 +$6 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $20 −$10 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 05 $16 −$11 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$9 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $16 −$9 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 +$5 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $6 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$8 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$8 -49%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 2? Jun 03 $12 +$12 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $10 −$6 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? Jun 03 $16 −$8 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $16 −$13 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $11 +$9 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $16 −$8 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $8 +$6 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June Jun 01 $16 −$8 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $31 +$11 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$6 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 58¢ $4 4h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 52¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 57¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 49¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 55¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? SELL No 48¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 31¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 42¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 42¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 44¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 58¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 58¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 14¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 24¢ $17 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? SELL No 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 17¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 58¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 48¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 53¢ $4 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 21¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.13 · official $13.13 (match) · 711 history records