Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:35:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10f7…f14f other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$8 (-28%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$13
sports 21% +$6
crypto 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -27.8% -34.7% 33% 20% -39.8%
≤30d 15 -27.8% -34.7% 33% 20% -39.8%
≤90d 15 -27.8% -34.7% 33% 20% -39.8%
all 15 -27.8% -34.7% 33% 20% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 20% -39.8%
10% -41.0% 7% -45.6%
15% -46.7% 7% -50.8%
20% -51.9% 7% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -40%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$7 +364%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $1 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 20h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 20h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 24h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 26h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 26h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.03 · official $3.03 (match) · 36 history records