Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10f8…e7f5 sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%28W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$241
14 days−$11
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$52
other 4% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +11.6% +0.9% 67% 67% +6.3%
≤30d 40 -8.2% -16.9% 52% 52% -4.4%
≤90d 55 -15.7% -23.8% 51% 51% -9.0%
all 55 -15.7% -23.8% 51% 51% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 51% -9.0%
10% -31.1% 49% -17.7%
15% -37.7% 42% -25.7%
20% -43.8% 27% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$40 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses28 / 27
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage54d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Paper Rex 44¢ 35¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $41 +$45 +110%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $101 +$57 +57%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $151 −$12 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$39 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$30 +59%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $93 +$37 +40%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $91 +$43 +48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $91 +$33 +36%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $64 +$34 +53%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $71 +$46 +65%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $41 +$29 +71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $46 +$39 +84%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $282 −$3 -1%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 12 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $76 +$68 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$56 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $60 +$77 +129%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $81 +$39 +48%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 25 $61 +$31 +51%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $53 +$17 +32%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $54 +$31 +57%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $60 +$24 +40%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $40 −$40 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 05 $36 +$10 +27%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $40 −$40 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $6 −$5 -98%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Apr 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $51 +$34 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 44¢ $41 13m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $86 33m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 47¢ $41 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $159 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $101 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 63¢ $139 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $151 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $147 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $101 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $51 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $81 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 62¢ $51 27h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 59¢ $51 47h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $130 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $93 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $134 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $91 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $40 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 73¢ $91 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $61 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $50 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 99¢ $69 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 57¢ $41 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $71 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 6d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $85 6d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $46 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.82 · official $31.82 (match) · 89 history records