Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
10 0x10fd…633b sports 486 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,485 (+7%) realized +$1,533 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate63%302W / 180L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days+$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$1,518
sports 37% −$7
world 1% −$17
finance 1% −$171
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 24 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 58% +2.2%
≤90d 417 +7.9% -2.4% 60% 38% -3.4%
all 482 +6.5% -3.6% 63% 35% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 35% -3.8%
10% -12.9% 33% -13.0%
15% -21.3% 31% -21.4%
20% -29.0% 26% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$43 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized+$1,533
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses302 / 180
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions4
Markets (closed)482 / 486
History coverage94d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $140 $134 −$6 (-4%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 20¢ $96 $58 −$38 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
Birmingham: Felix Gill vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 04 $74 +$26 +36%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 04 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $105 +$95 +90%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $127 +$73 +57%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $91 +$109 +119%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $138 +$62 +45%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 May 31 $34 −$34 -100%
Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 4.5 May 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $111 +$89 +79%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $125 +$75 +60%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $119 +$81 +67%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $117 +$83 +71%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $124 −$124 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $92 +$208 +226%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $104 +$196 +188%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $137 +$63 +46%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $119 −$118 -99%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Zamalek SC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $114 +$86 +75%
Will El Ahly SC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $117 +$83 +70%
Will Pyramids FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 20 $56 −$55 -99%
Will FC Hermannstadt win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $68 +$132 +193%
Will AFC Unirea Slobozia win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $93 −$92 -99%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $38 +$62 +165%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $36 +$64 +180%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $33 +$67 +206%
Will El Mokawloon El Arab SC win on 2026-05-18? May 17 $87 −$86 -98%
Will FC Petrolul Ploieşti win on 2026-05-18? May 17 $121 −$120 -99%
Will FCV Farul Constanţa win on 2026-05-18? May 17 $80 −$80 -99%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $43 +$57 +133%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $32 +$68 +216%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $74 +$84 +114%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Eyüpspor end in a draw? May 17 $35 +$165 +473%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $76 −$75 -99%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $32 +$32 +101%
Will NEC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $72 +$28 +40%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $60 +$40 +67%
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $81 +$18 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $98 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $143 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $92 4d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 39¢ $79 16d
Birmingham: Felix Gill vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 73¢ $74 16d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 69¢ $122 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 20d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 21d
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 63¢ $127 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.50 · official $384.50 (match) · 1229 history records