Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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11 0x1102…af36 sports 889 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 171d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,801 (+7%) realized +$4,950 · open −$149
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%419W / 288L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$13,221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 172d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$136
other 27% −$570
crypto 13% +$981
politics 8% −$250
world 6% −$301
culture 3% +$621
tech 2% −$75
finance 1% +$193
economics 1% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +21.8% +10.2% 60% 55% -9.0%
≤30d 60 +18.6% +7.3% 78% 62% +0.5%
≤90d 349 +8.0% -2.3% 66% 51% -6.7%
all 707 -2.1% -11.4% 59% 48% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 48% -8.9%
10% -19.9% 40% -17.6%
15% -27.6% 33% -25.6%
20% -34.7% 25% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$54 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$13,221
Realized+$4,950
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses419 / 288
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions186
Markets (closed)707 / 889
History coverage172d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 186 History 707 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 69¢ $630 $834 +$204 (+32%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 83¢ $496 $499 +$3 (+1%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 79¢ 95¢ $349 $421 +$72 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $364 $368 +$4 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 84¢ 89¢ $336 $356 +$20 (+6%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 71¢ 76¢ $249 $268 +$18 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $246 $253 +$7 (+3%)
Clavicular sentenced to prison? No 82¢ 84¢ $241 $247 +$6 (+3%)
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 46¢ $373 $220 −$153 (-41%)
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No 72¢ 70¢ $217 $210 −$7 (-3%)
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $248 $209 −$39 (-16%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $189 $195 +$6 (+3%)
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? No 70¢ 73¢ $186 $194 +$8 (+4%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 68¢ 56¢ $230 $192 −$38 (-16%)
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 79¢ 94¢ $158 $187 +$29 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $187 $187 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $178 $186 +$8 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $199 $177 −$23 (-11%)
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 36¢ $94 $174 +$80 (+85%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $165 $167 +$2 (+1%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 57¢ 82¢ $114 $165 +$51 (+45%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $162 $161 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 76¢ $105 $159 +$54 (+51%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 79¢ $151 $158 +$7 (+5%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $469 $156 −$313 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada recession before 2027? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? Jun 18 $1,736 +$40 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$57 +133%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $157 +$73 +47%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 +$50 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $285 −$1 -0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 +$42 +48%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 16 $71 +$29 +41%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $84 +$16 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $63 +$63 +99%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $8 +$41 +488%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $142 +$108 +75%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 09 $129 +$71 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 +$210 +104%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 09 $136 −$136 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 08 $124 +$76 +61%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $111 +$7 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $398 +$353 +89%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Billam-Smith vs. Rozicki (Cruiserweight, Main) Jun 01 $60 −$44 -74%
Will Elliot die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $27 +$12 +44%
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $49 +$18 +37%
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $190 +$10 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main May 31 $114 −$114 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) May 31 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $100 +$70 +70%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? May 29 $114 −$92 -81%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 25 $36 +$29 +82%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 25 $155 +$45 +29%
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? May 22 $90 +$3 +4%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $28 +$9 +31%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? May 22 $60 +$31 +51%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $174 +$10 +6%
Epstein storage units raided in 2026? May 22 $36 +$15 +42%
Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 22 $93 +$5 +5%
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? May 22 $97 +$6 +6%
McDonald's CEO out by June 30? May 22 $198 +$6 +3%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 22 $200 +$4 +2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $46 +$17 +38%
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? May 22 $116 +$21 +18%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 22 $64 +$20 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 22 $86 +$12 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 22 $78 +$21 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1,208 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 46¢ $53 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $162 3h
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? BUY No 34¢ $21 7h
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? BUY No 34¢ $1 7h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 46¢ $2 9h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 42¢ $42 11h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 70¢ $70 17h
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? BUY No 34¢ $9 18h
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 BUY No 57¢ $48 20h
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 BUY No 57¢ $10 20h
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 BUY No 57¢ $6 20h
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 BUY No 57¢ $28 20h
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 BUY No 57¢ $22 21h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $80 24h
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2 BUY Yes 30¢ $11 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $200 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $275 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $34 27h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 27h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 84¢ $85 27h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $15 27h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 85¢ $86 27h
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 27h
Will Dricus Du Plessis become UFC champion in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 27h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $90 27h
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2 BUY Yes 30¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,221.44 · official $13,228.72 (match) · 3500 history records