Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:53:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x1104…1f70 weather 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$768 (+9%) realized +$728 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate64%50W / 28L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$119
14 days+$280
30 days+$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$377
world 5% +$372
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.7% -10.1% 63% 33% -7.0%
≤30d 75 +1.3% -8.3% 64% 39% -2.6%
≤90d 78 +2.8% -7.0% 64% 40% -1.6%
all 78 +2.8% -7.0% 64% 40% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 40% -1.6%
10% -15.9% 23% -11.0%
15% -24.0% 17% -19.6%
20% -31.5% 12% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized+$728
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses50 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage63d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? No 84¢ 100¢ $169 $200 +$31 (+18%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 20? No 86¢ 92¢ $132 $142 +$9 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? Jun 19 $213 −$5 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $502 +$55 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $153 +$17 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $52 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $265 +$78 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $434 +$67 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$9 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $87 −$26 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $33 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $398 −$37 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $296 +$23 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $188 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $345 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $80 −$49 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $88 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $189 +$6 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$8 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $30 +$11 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $359 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $158 −$57 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $121 +$24 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $78 +$10 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $313 +$6 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $44 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$19 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 −$11 -35%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $76 +$9 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $687 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $70 +$30 +43%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$50 +328%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 −$34 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$31 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $109 +$28 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $151 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? SELL No 79¢ $104 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $133 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? SELL No 80¢ $60 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? SELL No 81¢ $44 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $68 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $74 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $5 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $213 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $73 35h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $56 35h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $41 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 85¢ $31 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.33 · official $341.32 (match) · 687 history records