Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1104…002a other 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,930 (+10%) realized +$21,070 · open +$2,859
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate61%78W / 49L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$1,763per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$42,560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,309
7 days+$12,377
14 days+$13,301
30 days+$14,703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$7,633
other 25% +$2,730
politics 17% +$2,586
finance 8% +$1,482
sports 4% +$6,147
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +9.9% -0.6% 80% 60% +15.1%
≤30d 49 +5.6% -4.5% 69% 39% +4.5%
≤90d 93 +0.7% -8.9% 69% 27% +1.3%
all 127 -5.5% -14.5% 61% 24% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 24% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 13% -10.5%
15% -30.2% 7% -19.1%
20% -37.0% 4% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,338) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$348 vs −$196 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$42,560
Realized+$21,070
Unrealized+$2,859
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses78 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions13
Markets (closed)127 / 140
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,763
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 94¢ $30,619 $30,641 +$23 (+0%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 61¢ 93¢ $5,384 $8,233 +$2,848 (+53%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 92¢ $1,551 $1,635 +$84 (+5%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,384 $1,398 +$13 (+1%)
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $174 $181 +$8 (+4%)
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 95¢ 96¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? No 30¢ 29¢ $97 $94 −$2 (-3%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 18¢ $143 $89 −$54 (-38%)
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 87¢ 90¢ $65 $68 +$2 (+4%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 40¢ 22¢ $121 $65 −$57 (-47%)
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1,416 −$1,416 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $2,917 +$697 +24%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $6,093 +$5,050 +83%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,005 +$174 +17%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 21 $709 −$690 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $1,941 +$20 +1%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 20 $2,689 +$443 +16%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $84 +$31 +37%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $3,780 +$5,857 +155%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $1,286 +$267 +21%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $197 −$196 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $417 +$197 +47%
United States vs. Australia: Second half draw? Jun 19 $240 +$146 +61%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $339 +$84 +25%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 19 $1,338 +$355 +27%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 19 $477 +$19 +4%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 19 $281 +$82 +29%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10,366 −$474 -5%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $107 −$23 -22%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,823 +$330 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $823 +$56 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $22 +$4 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $553 +$29 +5%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,257 +$476 +38%
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,361 +$421 +31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $934 +$18 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $2,381 +$389 +16%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? Jun 17 $28 +$10 +34%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $571 +$20 +4%
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $264 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,608 +$60 +4%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 13 $639 −$21 -3%
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? Jun 13 $2,223 +$181 +8%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $33 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10,064 +$815 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $53 $0 -1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $219 +$12 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $654 −$83 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $3,142 −$38 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $79 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $17,708 +$2,268 +13%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 28 $2,960 +$311 +10%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 27 $6,055 −$266 -4%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 26 $1,765 −$761 -43%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 May 26 $1,527 −$151 -10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 19 $443 +$30 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $13,261 15m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,981 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $220 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $7 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $577 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $100 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $100 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $23 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $1,649 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 93¢ $1,288 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 93¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 93¢ $577 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 93¢ $93 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 93¢ $8 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,627 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2,034 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $915 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 79¢ $94 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 79¢ $188 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 79¢ $188 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 79¢ $122 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 81¢ $68 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,559.94 · official $42,559.94 (match) · 2494 history records