Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1107…de67 crypto 1676 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (253 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,214 (-16%) realized −$5,180 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate64%1245W / 693L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day253.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (253 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1655 -21.1% -28.6% 61% 41% -31.7%
≤30d 1938 -16.2% -24.2% 64% 38% -29.7%
≤90d 1938 -16.2% -24.2% 64% 38% -29.7%
all 1938 -16.2% -24.2% 64% 38% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover253.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 38% -29.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 19% -36.4%
15% -38.1% 5% -42.6%
20% -44.2% 4% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$5,180
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1245 / 693
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1938 / 1676
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day253.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1938 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 93¢ 55¢ $84 $49 −$34 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $41 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $39 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $40 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $28 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $39 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $42 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $23 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $39 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $39 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $44 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.05 · official $49.05 (match) · 3500 history records